Oilseed-production area in Ukraine: more soybeans, less rapeseed expected

Ukraine is a major producer of oilseeds and an important supplier to the EU.

The war has presented Ukrainian farmers with some huge challenges, with a multitude of factors having already impacted the sowings of winter rapeseed in the autumn.

Recent forecasts anticipate a stable sunflower area.

On the other hand, the soybean acreage is expected to expand.

The situation of agriculture in Ukraine continues to be difficult.

Due to the war, supply of seed, fertilizers, crop-protection products and fuels is inadequate and costly.

Also, there is a shortage of workers to operate agricultural machinery.

At the same time, producer prices for cereals and oilseeds have fallen significantly due to higher freight charges.

Moreover, some neighboring countries have closed their borders for agricultural products.

Countless smaller and medium-sized farms have given up business because of the poor financial situation.

Some of the land was bought up is not yet back under cultivation.

This complicates the production-area forecast for oilseeds, legumes and cereals significantly.

Latest estimates by the Ukrainian authorities and the USDA project a decline in rapeseed area on the previous year.

Producer prices are clearly below the previous year’s level, with expectations of an increase being low.

What is more, lack of rain hampered sowings.

However, investigations conducted by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (mbH) suggest a brighter outlook for sunflower and soybean production.

The profitability of these crops is expected to be higher than that of rapeseed.

The reason is lower input costs, especially in the case of the legume soybean, and better income possibilities.

The expected steady demand for sunflower oil suggests that the production area will remain stable.

How much rapeseed, sunflowers and soybeans and their respective processed products will then go into exports depends on numerous factors, above all the big uncertainty in transport costs, which means that there is currently no way to estimate these quantities with any certainty.