European Commission sees Germany as EU’s biggest rapeseed producer

According to the latest European Commission estimates, the EU rapeseed harvest will likely be smaller than previously expected.

The main reason is the lower harvest volume in France.

Many market players are putting a question mark on the expectations concerning the German crop.

The rapeseed harvest in the EU is in full swing and has already been completed in some areas.

The yield reports confirm the estimates, which had already been lowered in the run up to the harvest.

The drops in yield are mainly attributable to the unfavorable weather prior to flowering—a critical phase for crop development and therefore yield production—and pest pressure after emergence in many parts of the EU.

In the light of this, the European Commission lowered its crop forecast several times.

According to recent information, the EU rapeseed harvest is likely to amount to just under 18.4 million metric tons, which is down nearly 0.5 million tons on the June forecast and down as much as 1.3 million tons on the 2023 harvest.

Nevertheless, the long-term average of 17.8 million tons is set to be outpaced.

The International Grains Council (IGC), forecasting 18.5 million tons, is slightly more optimistic, as is the USDA with its forecast of 18.9 million tons.

The main reason for the scale down is a presumably smaller harvest in France.

The European Commission is currently forecasting 3.9 million tons, which compares to 4.1 million tons expected in June.

In other words, this year’s production will fall far short of the previous year’s output of 4.3 million tons.

Exceptionally high rainfall in the first half of the year affected the development of the crops and thus also significantly limited the yield potential.

The forecast of Romanian rapeseed production was also revised downwards.

At just less than 1.5 million tons, the European Commission projects the harvest at nearly 0.1 million tons lower than it did in June and as much as 0.3 million tons lower than the previous year’s harvest.

Similarly, the forecasts for Hungary, Latvia and the Czech Republic are also considerably lower compared to the previous month.

Harvests in these countries also fall short of the previous year’s levels.

The forecast for Germany was only lowered slightly to 4 million tons, representing a significant gap over the previous year’s volume of 4.2 million tons.

Nonetheless, the European Commission’s forecast is well in excess of that of many other market partners and the latest forecast of the Deutscher Raiffeisenverband (DRV), which expects just over 3.8 million tons.

Only expectations for Slovakia, Ireland and Denmark were slightly raised, but the volumes estimated by the European Commission are still below the previous year’s figures.

According to investigations conducted by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (mbH), the somewhat higher production estimated for these countries is not sufficient to offset the significant decline in France and other countries.

Rapeseed supply in the EU for the 2024-’25 marketing year is set to be substantially lower than only recently expected.