New study shows US EPA ‘half RIN’ proposal would keep US soybean demand strong

A new economic analysis finds that U.S. EPA’s proposal to assign 50 percent of the renewable identification number (RIN) credits to imported biofuels and biofuels made from imported feedstocks compared to domestic would strengthen domestic soybean markets while preserving flexibility in biomass-based diesel sourcing.

The study, funded by the United Soybean Board and conducted by World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services, evaluated feedstock demand, farmer income and commodity pricing under different final decisions for EPA’s proposed 2026-’27 Renewable Fuel Standard volumes.

The half-RIN proposal ensures that imported feedstocks remain available for biofuel producers but reduces policy incentives to substitute foreign oils for U.S. soybean oil.

According to the study, the option still allows imports to be used but makes domestic feedstocks, including soybean oil, more competitive.

EPA’s pending volume rule already projects record biomass-based diesel use, which would support domestic crushing and soybean-oil utilization.

“Soybean farmers support strong biomass-based diesel markets,” said ASA President Caleb Ragland. “This study confirms that when policy values domestic feedstocks, rural communities benefit. The half RIN proposal still gives biofuel producers flexibility, but it keeps American soybeans competitive and keeps more value here at home.”

Researchers modeled three scenarios and found that the half-RIN approach delivers the greatest economic benefit to U.S. soybean farmers across every major metric evaluated.

Removing the 50 percent credit reduction, even if EPA later adjusts blending volumes, would reduce the value of U.S. soybeans, lower demand for domestic soybean oil, and increase reliance on imported used cooking oil (UCO) and tallow as biofuel feedstocks.

If the renewable volume obligation (RVO) is finalized without the half RIN:

• Soy cash receipts would fall $2.1 billion for the 2026-’27 crop and $2 billion for 2027-’28.

• The value of soybean oil and meal would decline $4.8 billion in 2026-’27 and $6 billion in 2027-’28.

• Soybean oil used in biofuels would drop 2.4 billion pounds in 2026 and 3.3 billion pounds in 2027.

• Foreign imports of tallow and UCO would increase by 2.3 billion pounds in 2026 and 2.4 billion pounds in 2027, displacing domestic soybean demand.

Even if EPA attempts a compromise:

• A scenario where EPA raises 2026-’27 biofuel volume obligations to offset removal of the half RIN still reduces soy farmer income by $800 million in 2026-’27 and $500 million in 2027-’28.

• Soybean oil used in biofuels would still fall by 600 million pounds in 2026 and 200 million pounds in 2027.

• Imports of UCO and tallow would still surge, increasing by 2.8 billion pounds in 2026 and 3.1 billion pounds in 2027.

The study shows the half-RIN proposal is the most advantageous option for U.S. soybean farmers, maximizing domestic feedstock use while maintaining market flexibility.

Imported materials remain part of the mix in every case, but the half credit better aligns RIN generation with domestic availability and supports farm income, crushing capacity and rural economic growth.

The full report, “Implications for Biofuels and Feedstock Demand of the Granting of Full or Half RIN Credits on Imports,” is available from ASA upon request.