IATA: SAF production volumes still disappointing

The International Air Transport Association released estimates June 6 showing that global sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production is expected to reach around 2.4 million metric tons in 2026, representing just 0.8 percent of aviation-fuel use, at a cost to airlines of $4.3 billion.

“It looks to be another disappointing year for SAF production,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general. “Five years after committing to achieve net zero by 2050, SAF production will only account for 0.8 percent of airline fuel use this year. The path to meeting 65 percent of our needs in 2050 is growing more difficult with each year of ineffectively sequenced government policies and oil companies’ manifest lack of interest. The current energy shock should add even more urgency to the development of renewables, including SAF. But we have yet to see either the energy shock, the need to develop energy independence and jobs, or the urgency to mitigate climate change materialize in the incentives needed to create a viable SAF market.”

To accelerate the scale-up of SAF, IATA is calling for coordinated action across four priorities:

• Expand renewable energy supply to underpin SAF production and ensure sufficient feedstocks and clean energy are available.

• Ensure open access to fuel infrastructure including pipelines, storage and airport fuel systems, to enable fair competition and efficient distribution.

• Strengthen policy support through effective sequencing of production incentives and investment frameworks that provide certainty and reduce risk before any mandates are imposed.

• Enable a global SAF market with sufficient volumes at commercially viable prices critical for the airline financial and economic sustainability. A book-and-claim system is essential to transform the SAF market from local to global by making it accessible to airlines and SAF producers regardless of their domicile. A global SAF market must also be supported by harmonized standards that create enduring rules and fair competition.

The eSAF problem

Along with SAF from biofuel sources, electro SAF (eSAF) will also play a growing role in air transport’s decarbonization.

The conversion of renewable electricity using a power-to-liquid (PtL) process can produce eSAF, which does not require biomass or waste oils but does require large amounts of renewable electricity, green hydrogen, water and CO2.

The EU and U.K. have mandated eSAF production of around 0.6 million tons by 2030.

Global production capacity currently operating and under construction, however, stands at around 0.02 million tons with only one single production site in operation.

It would take approximately 20 commercial-scale refineries to achieve the mandated volume.

Moreover, no new final-investment decisions for eSAF facilities have been made over the past year.

“The 2030 eSAF targets by the U.K. and the EU are beyond unrealistic—they are utterly detached from reality,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s senior vice president of sustainability and chief economist. “It is a reckless energy market creation strategy to impose mandates before production is enabled. Such a strategy will only drive up the price. Coupled with penalties, it diverts scarce resources from being allocated to actual CO2 emissions reductions. The strategy is also bewildering given that Europe has the highest renewable energy prices in the world. A serious strategy would first scale renewable energy production to drive its price down and build the eSAF production capacity on sound economics. Only at that point can mandates achieve the desired results.”

Passenger support for decarbonization

The latest IATA passenger survey (April 2026) shows strong and consistent support for decarbonizing air transport.

Eighty-nine percent of passengers believe the industry should continue reducing emissions even if governments scale back their efforts, and a similar share sees flying as essential and as something that must be made sustainable, rather than restricting its use.

This support is backed by a willingness to act: About two-thirds of passengers (66 percent) say they are willing to pay more to compensate for emissions, and nearly 88 percent expect ticket prices to rise as a result of sustainability investments.

Passengers also clearly favor “real” decarbonization solutions, with 25 percent prioritizing the use of funds for SAF and 23 percent for emissions-reduction technologies, far ahead of taxes (10 percent).

Importantly, sustainability is already influencing behavior: Nearly half of travelers (48 percent) look at carbon emissions when choosing flights, and among those who do, over 85 percent say it affects their decision, while around three-quarters say they prefer airlines with stronger environmental performance.

Overall, the data points to a clear message: Passengers expect air transport to decarbonize, are broadly supportive of the transition and increasingly factor sustainability into their choices, even if cost and convenience remain important.