Canada’s rapeseed harvest up from last year but smaller than average
The 2022 Canadian crop far exceeds the previous year’s volume, which was reduced by drought, but nevertheless remains smaller than average.
Following the past drought year in 2021 and record-low Canadian canola production, the International Grains Council is positive about Canadian rapeseed supply in 2022.
Although the area planted with rapeseed was scaled back 4 percent to 8.7 million hectares, the harvest will probably be significantly larger.
The main factor is higher yields due to significantly better growing conditions for the field crops compared to the same period a year earlier.
At 2.23 metric tons per hectare, the forecast average yield is 44.8 percent higher than the previous year.
According to investigations conducted by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (mbH), based on this forecast the rapeseed crop is likely to reach 19.1 million tons, which compares to only 13.8 million tons in the drought-stricken previous year.
Nevertheless, rapeseed production in 2022 will probably fall 0.4 million tons and 0.5 million tons short of 2020 and 2019, respectively.
Based on a domestic rapeseed consumption of 10.5 million tons, around 1.1 million tons more than the past crop year, there will be a surplus of 8.6 million tons.
In view of low beginning stocks, supplies—at 900,000 tons—will likely fall short of the previous year’s volume of 1.7 million tons.
AMI believes that due to larger Canadian production, rapeseed exports will presumably rise significantly to around 8.5 million tons. This would translate to a 60.3 percent rise year-on-year.
Domestic consumption could also increase.
Forecast at 10 million tons, it would exceed the previous year’s volume by 16.3 percent.