Study projects expansion of biofuel production in Brazil with USD$20 billion investment by 2035

The government of Brazil launched Sept. 8 its Biofuel Supply Booklet, an integral part of the 2035 10-year energy expansion plan (PDE).

The study, prepared by the ministry of mines and energy (MME), in partnership with the Energy Research Company (EPE), presents detailed projections on the evolution of the supply and demand of biofuels in Brazil, considering the scenario of advancing the energy transition and strengthening public policies for the sector.

According to the document, ethanol supply is expected to grow by approximately 30 percent over the next decade, reaching 51 billion liters (13.5 billion gallons) in 2035.

Corn-based ethanol, which accounted for 20 percent of production in 2024, will gain prominence and is expected to account for over 30 percent of total supply in 2035.

Fuel ethanol demand reaches 48.2 billion liters (12.7 billion gallons), ensuring a positive balance throughout the analysis horizon.

The study also projects a technical generation potential of an average 5.9 gigawatts (GW) of bioelectricity from sugarcane bagasse at the end of the period, in addition to 6.4 billion normal cubic meters (NM3) of biomethane derived from sugarcane residues (vinasse, filter cake, straw and tops), equivalent to approximately 10 percent of national natural-gas consumption in 2024.

Regarding biodiesel, projected demand reaches 13.9 billion liters (3.7 billion gallons) in 2035, with soybean oil remaining the main raw material.

The expected installed capacity is sufficient to meet the legal targets for mandatory blending, with surpluses that can be used for maritime transportation and other uses.

The national biodiesel production and use program (PNPB) continues to play a strategic role in supporting family farming, stimulating social inclusion and income generation in rural areas.

The booklet also details the evolution of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

Starting in 2030, announced projects are expected to produce 1.7 billion liters (449 million gallons) per year, reaching 2.8 billion liters (739.7 million gallons) in 2035.

This production will be sufficient to meet, on average, 66 percent of the emissions-reduction targets established by CORSIA and ProBioQAV over the 10-year period.

In total, the investments needed to support the expansion of the biofuels chain through 2035 are estimated to reach $110 billion Brazilian reals (USD$20.4 billion), including new biorefineries, plant modernization and feedstock diversification.