New study: Corporate demand could support up to 1.9 million tons of SAF by 2030
The International Air Transport Association, Airbus and Accenture released a study, “SAF Environmental Attribute Certificate (EAc) Market,” which estimates that corporate purchases could support between 1 million and 1.9 million metric tons of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2030, up from an estimated 323,000 tons in 2024.
This is a strong demand signal for more SAF production, provided factors limiting corporate participation—such as unclear accounting rules, high prices and purchasing complexity—are addressed, IATA stated.
SAF can significantly reduce aviation emissions compared with conventional jet fuel, but global production in 2026 is expected to be just 2.4 million tons or 0.8 percent of total jet-fuel use, and it remains two to three times more expensive than conventional jet fuel.
Enabling corporates to meet scope 3 emissions objectives (for business travel and air-cargo shipments) through SAF EAc purchases would help co-share the SAF cost by expanding the market to more participants in the value chain.
This would require a robust and effective book-and-claim system that enables the claim of the SAF emissions-reduction benefits by corporates regardless of where the fuel is delivered and ultimately consumed.
“SAF is aviation’s most important decarbonization lever, but airlines cannot shoulder the cost of scaling it up alone,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s senior vice president of sustainability and chief economist. “Corporate buyers have a unique opportunity to help build the SAF market, contribute to the cost of air transport’s energy transition and benefit from recognized scope 3 emissions reductions in the process. The potential is substantial, but it will only be realized if companies can participate with confidence, knowing that their contributions will count and that the process is simple and credible. Getting these foundations right will help unlock investment, grow the market and accelerate SAF production.”
Julien Manhes, an executive with Airbus, added, “This study clearly demonstrates that corporate demand is a powerful, untapped catalyst for scaling SAF. By giving corporate buyers the accounting certainty they need to co-fund the SAF premium, book and claim can transform potential interest into firm commitments, sending the near-term demand signal fuel producers need to accelerate production and lower costs across the industry.”
Jesko Neuenburg, Accenture’s lead on global aviation and travel sustainability, said, “SAF will do most of the heavy lifting on aviation decarbonization, but airlines and a select group of corporates cannot carry its cost all the way to 2050. Only around 15 percent of surveyed corporates are purchasing today, but the majority are waiting for the price to come down, for the carbon accounting to settle and for the buying process to get simpler. Airlines that establish SAF cost-recovery capabilities now will be best positioned when growth in the SAF EAc market accelerates. The opportunity today is to focus on the sectors where demand is already emerging, making SAF attributes simple and transparent to buy, and invest in the systems, partnerships and customer relationships that can scale as the market matures.”
Significant potential remains untapped
SAF EAc generally cost between $150 and $500 for each ton of CO2e emissions abated, while companies report being willing to pay closer to $300.
Airlines account for approximately 53 percent of corporate SAF-certificate purchases, making them the largest source of certificates for companies seeking to address emissions from business travel and air freight.
Unlocking corporate demand
The study identifies three priorities to enable greater corporate participation:
Clear and consistent accounting rules that provide confidence that purchased emissions reductions will be recognized.
Transparent and interoperable tracking systems that prevent double counting and ensure environmental integrity.
Simpler purchasing mechanisms, including greater price transparency, lower minimum-purchase volumes and shorter contract durations.
“Corporate participation alone will not deliver the scale of SAF that aviation requires,” Owens Thomsen said. “Continued government support, effective incentives and a significant expansion of production capacity remain essential. But every additional corporate purchase converts climate ambition into real market demand and helps distribute the cost of decarbonization more broadly. The next step is making participation easier, more accessible and more credible for companies of all sizes.
Click here to learn more about the “SAF Environmental Attribute Certificate (EAc) Market” study.
