Larger global rapeseed harvest expected for 2021-’22
According to the latest estimates of the International Grains Council, slightly more rapeseed will likely be harvested worldwide in the upcoming crop year. Consumption is seen to remain virtually unchanged.
The ICG has forecast that the world’s four largest rapeseed producers, Canada, the EU, China and India, will harvest more rapeseed in the 2021-’22 crop year than the previous year. According to the IGC estimate, global rapeseed production will presumably rise from 70.4 million metric tons in 2020-’21 to 72.8 million tons in 2021-’22. The IGC outlook is based on a 2 percent increase in area planted, but also on yield increases. At 72.9 million tons, global rapeseed consumption is seen to decline marginally compared to the previous year due to strong demand in Asia and Europe. However, it is set to remain at a high level.
Prospects for a bounce-back in global rapeseed supply in 2021-’22 appear to be poor considering the expected low level of beginning stocks and moderate growth in production. The 2021-’22 crop-year ending stocks are therefore forecast at the previous year’s level of 3.6 million tons. Stocks of the three big exporters—Australia, Canada and Ukraine—are anticipated to shrink to 1 million tons (from 1.2 million tons the previous year). This is mainly due to the decline in stocks in Canada.
Prospects for world trade in 2021-’22 (October to September) will ultimately fundamentally depend on demand from the EU-27 and key buyers in Asia, including China, Japan and Pakistan. Harvest volumes in the EU-27 are seen to remain tentatively stable at 17.3 million tons in the 2021-’22 crop year. Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (mbH) has underlined that an expansion in area planted in the EU is the main prerequisite for improving supply to the European oil mills.