Increased rapeseed production in EU reduces import demand
EU-27 rapeseed production in 2020-’21 exceeded the previous year’s output. Consumption is estimated lower, leading to reduced import demand. Nevertheless, ending stocks are expected to grow.
According to information published by the EU Commission, the rapeseed harvest in the EU-27 was slightly larger in 2020 than in 2019. It is pegged at 16.1 million metric tons, which translates to a rise of just less than 5 percent compared to 2019. According to investigations conducted by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (mbH), the climb is a result of harvest increases in Germany, Poland, Lithuania and the Czech Republic. It more than offset production declines in other member states. Nevertheless, the result is once again short of the average harvest figure.
EU-27 consumption in 2020-’21 is estimated at 21.2 million tons, which translates to a decline of 4 percent year-on-year. The somewhat higher output and lower demand will likely cause the gap between production and consumption to narrow somewhat in 2020-’21. A year earlier, 70 percent of EU consumption was covered by European production. In 2020-’21, the share will presumably be 76 percent. For this reason, the EU Commission expects that compared to the previous crop year, less rapeseed will have to be purchased from third countries. Imports are estimated at 5.5 million tons, which would be an 11 percent drop. According to AMI estimates, the EU-27 has already imported approximately 70 percent of the expected import volume this crop year.
EU ending stocks are likely to reach approximately 800,000 tons. This would translate to an increase of about 60 percent—but compared to a previous year with very low ending stocks.