European Commission lowers expectations for 2025 rapeseed harvest

According to the latest estimates from the European Commission, the EU rapeseed harvest is expected to be smaller than previously forecast.

The good news is that it will significantly outperform the disappointing previous year’s output.

Even this outstanding harvest, however, will not be sufficient to meet the EU-27’s demand of approximately 25 million metric tons.

Rapeseed harvesting operations are in full swing across the EU.

According to latest commission data, the EU will likely harvest approximately 18.5 million tons of rapeseed.

This is 385,000 tons below the June estimate but still represents an increase of nearly 1.9 million tons on the 2024 harvest.

In 2024, poor weather severely limited yield potential.

The expected harvest will also exceed the long-term average of 17.8 million tons.

Earlier forecasts by the International Grains Council and USDA were slightly more optimistic at 18.8 million tons and 19.5 million tons, respectively.

The year-on-year increase is mainly due to an anticipated larger harvest in France, the EU’s largest rapeseed producer.

Like the French agricultural statistical office Agreste, the European Commission currently projects French rapeseed production at 4.2 million tons.

This is slightly lower than the June estimate, yet still well above last year’s 3.9 million tons.

The month of June was unprecedentedly hot with record-breaking temperatures and a significant precipitation deficit, especially in midwestern France.

Despite these conditions, the impact on winter crops was generally limited, as they had already entered or even completed their maturing phase.

The summery weather also allowed for an earlier-than-usual start to harvest operations.

The forecast of Romanian rapeseed production was also revised downward.

At just over 1.8 million tons, the commission nevertheless expects a rise of 682,000 tons compared to the previous year.

Meanwhile, the forecast for Germany remained unchanged at 3.9 million tons, a significant rise from 3.6 million tons the previous year.

According to research by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (mbH), the EU Commission’s forecast slightly exceeds the latest estimate from the Deutscher Raiffeisenverband (German Raiffeisen Association), which is approximately 17,000 tons lower.

In Germany, progress of harvest operations has been slow due to delays caused by continued rainy weather in many regions.

Forecasts for the coming days also predict continued unsettled weather conditions, allowing only short harvest windows.

Despite these challenges, there have already been positive reports regarding yields and oil content.