Airbus unveils study on SAF potential to support economic growth, accelerate Canada’s climate transition

Source: “Canada Sustainable Aviation Fuel Economic Impact Study” prepared by ICF for Airbus

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) could become a major driver of Canada’s industrial and economic growth, while contributing to the global aerospace industry’s aspirational goal to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, according to a macroeconomic study conducted by Airbus and ICF unveiled at the Farnborough International Airshow.

The study outlines the requirements for SAF to meet 40 percent of Canada’s aviation-fuel demand by 2040, quantifying both the policy support required and the resulting economic opportunities for Canada.

Between 2026 and 2040, the development of a Canadian SAF value chain could generate an estimated CAD$32 billion (USD$22.7 billion) contribution to the country’s GDP.

This growth would be accompanied by the creation of 140,000 jobs between 2026 and 2040 across the value chain, representing nearly one quarter of the current direct workforce in the oil-and-gas sector.

Moreover, it would generate nearly CAD$890 million (USD$631.8 million) per year in net disposable income for these Canadian households.

These benefits would be felt across the country, from agricultural and forestry regions to major urban centers, contributing to economic diversification and the vitality of local communities.

The lifecycle-carbon emissions reductions enabled by SAF adoption could generate an additional estimated societal value of CAD$19 billion (USD$13.49 billion) through avoided carbon costs, based on the government of Canada’s methodology.

The social cost of carbon (SCC) has been adopted by Environment and Climate Change Canada to measure the additional economic impacts of an incremental increase in carbon emissions.

In a context where a significant share of fuel consumed in Canada is imported, developing a domestic SAF value chain is also a matter of energy sovereignty and economic resilience.

Domestic production would help reduce reliance on foreign markets and mitigate exposure to geopolitical fluctuations.

Without an increase in domestic capacity, Canada’s reliance on biofuel imports could exceed 65 percent by 2030 to meet projected demand of 8.5 billion liters (2.25 billion gallons).

This broader vulnerability would heighten energy-security risks for the sector, which already relies on foreign suppliers for approximately 35 percent of its conventional aviation fuel.

This opportunity comes at a time when the international landscape is evolving rapidly.

As incentive policies, particularly in the United States, are already accelerating investment and resource mobilization, Canada also has significant assets that could position it among the leaders in this industry, including abundant natural resources, industrial expertise and recognized leadership in the aerospace sector. 

Airbus reaffirms its commitment to accelerating the development of a viable, accessible and affordable SAF market to help reduce the aviation sector’s reliance on fossil fuels.

The company is positioning itself as a catalyst within the ecosystem by fostering industrial partnerships, supporting SAF deployment in its own operations and helping mobilize stakeholders across the value chain.

Airbus looks forward to continuing its constructive collaboration with government partners, alongside the Canadian Council for Sustainable Aviation Fuels.

Predictable and complementary incentives will be critical to attracting investment and enabling the development of a competitive and viable SAF value chain over the long term.

By aligning these industry initiatives with supportive public policy, Airbus aims to contribute domestic SAF production, ensure the availability of renewable fuels for the Canadian aerospace industry and preserve the affordability of air travel.

To view the full report, click here.