Global rapeseed harvest to reach new record high
With Russia and Australia anticipated to see a larger harvest, global 2022-’23 rapeseed production will likely hit a new record. The USDA expects world rapeseed output to rise to a new record level of 82.5 million metric tons.
This would be up 2.2 million tons from the July estimate and up 14 percent over 2021-’22. Above all, the rapeseed-harvest estimate for Russia was raised. Russia’s output is seen to hit a record at 3.9 million tons, which is up 1.1 million tons from the July forecast. The increase is mainly based on an expansion in area.
The Australian rapeseed harvest will probably also be around 700,000 tons larger than previously expected, with 6.1 million tons currently forecast. Favorable growing conditions raised the yield potential and caused USDA to make the adjustment. In the EU-27, the rapeseed harvest is likely to reach around 18 million tons, around 100,000 tons more than forecast in July.
With global consumption anticipated to amount to 79.2 million tons—830,000 tons more than expected in July and 5.1 million tons more than in the previous season—there will be a 3.3-million-ton surplus for the first time in three years. For Russia and China, USDA expects larger demand than previously forecast.
Given the presumably larger rapeseed production, global 2022-’23 ending stocks are likely to increase significantly. At 6.8 million tons, the USDA not only sees stocks just less than 900,000 tons higher than in the previous month’s estimate, but also up 47.5 percent from the previous year’s figure. These would be the largest ending stocks in three years.
The Union zur Förderung von Oel- und Proteinpflanzen e. V. (UFOP) considers the estimated volume adequate to cover demand for all food and feed uses, as well as biofuel production. German oil mills process approximately 10 million tons of rapeseed into 4 million tons of rapeseed oil per year.
The UFOP has pointed out that the current challenge is to secure the supply chain to ensure the commodity can be processed on time. The association is watching the low water levels in rivers with concern, and also the shift of transport to rail, which is increasingly reaching the limit of capacity.
In view of the priority regulation the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and the Federal Ministry for Transport are currently coordinating, UFOP has drawn attention to the fact that transporting rapeseed also means transporting an energy source that is already used for multiple energy applications. The association takes the view that in any case, in the face of climate change, the control of the Rhine River water levels requires new concepts that are strictly future-oriented.